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India, World’s 5th Largest Economy in 2022; Set to Become 4th by 2027


 According to GDP data from the International Monetary Fund, statistics for GDP are calculated using US dollars. The Indian economy was worth USD 854.7 billion in "nominal" cash terms in the three-month period ending in March, calculated on an adjusted basis and using the dollar exchange rate in effect on the last day of the pertinent quarter. The UK was worth USD 816 billion on the same basis.

India's economy is probably going to rise the fastest this fiscal year. In the first quarter of the fiscal year 2022–2023, it had an exceptional 13.5 percent GDP growth. According to a projection by the State Bank of India, the Indian economy will expand at a rate of 6.7 to 7.7 percent during the current fiscal year.

Since last year, India has been on the UK's tail. India presumably had to wait a little longer due to a discrepancy in the computation process. While figures for other nations are computed using a calendar year, those for India are done so using a fiscal year (April-March). India would therefore have to wait until 2022.

If the numbers are rounded, the economies of both the UK and India were roughly valued at USD 3.2 trillion in 2021. Aditi Nayar, the chief economist at the Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency (ICRA), estimated that India would overtake the UK in a matter of months in July 2022.

For context, it might be helpful to think back to the time when India passed France to become the sixth-largest economy in the world. In 2017, France and India were on an equal footing. The economy of both countries was deadlocked at USD 2.7 trillion the next year, but by 2019, India had passed France by USD 100 billion. In 2021, the shortfall reached USD 210 billion. In truth, India's position would be considerably stronger if the rankings of national economies were based on purchasing power parity (PPP), which takes into consideration a country's cost of living when converting its currency into dollars. India's economy remained the third largest in the world in PPP terms in 2021. The economy was stable at USD 10.22 trillion, it was nearly twice as large as Japan, whose economy, measured in PPP terms, ranked fourth with a USD 5.4 trillion GDP.

Several other recent favorable developments helped India's economy advance to the fifth-largest position. India's weighting in the developing markets index of Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) climbed to second place, just behind China. India accounted for about 8.1 percent of the index's weight in October 2020, with 87 stocks included. The weighting increased to 12.3 percent by November 2021 as 106 Indian stocks entered the competition. India has been expanding quickly in the export sector at the same time, gaining access to markets that China had previously controlled. The Straits Times reported on September 5 that US Customs data indicated that seaborne shipments of festival goods and accessories to America reached USD 20 million, almost quadruple the value from the previous year.

India is currently among the top five nations supplying T-shirts and holiday décor to the United States. The fad is not just for holiday merchandise. The third-largest economy in Asia has seen a noticeable increase in orders from both the US and Europe. Particularly in low-cost, labor-intensive industries like textiles, handicrafts, and non-electronic consumer products, there is an increase in demand. India has the chance to concentrate its investments on longer-term competitiveness and give "winnable" industries top priority as a result of China's ongoing decoupling from the global economy. India is predicted to have the largest labor population in the world by 2030 and could contribute more than USD 500 billion annually to the global economy, according to a report from management consulting firm Kearney and the World Economic Forum.


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